The latest articles on Forem by foresightlab (@foresightlab). https://forem.com/foresightlab https://media2.dev.to/dynamic/image/width=90,height=90,fit=cover,gravity=auto,format=auto/https:%2F%2Fdev-to-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2Fuser%2Fprofile_image%2F3921639%2Fac9dc9ee-c0d1-4ab0-85c6-04db0016d5d1.png https://forem.com/foresightlab en foresightlab Sat, 09 May 2026 10:44:46 +0000 https://forem.com/foresightlab/i-built-a-local-windows-tool-for-geopolitical-scenario-analysis-backtesting-and-report-generation-57ak https://forem.com/foresightlab/i-built-a-local-windows-tool-for-geopolitical-scenario-analysis-backtesting-and-report-generation-57ak <p>I built GPIS, a Windows-first local AI workstation for geopolitical/political-risk analysis.</p> <p>The goal is not "AI predicts the future." I actually had to move away from that framing because early local models can become overconfident or latch onto irrelevant threat categories. The current design is more conservative:</p> <ul> <li>local Ollama models;</li> <li>GDELT ingestion;</li> <li>ChromaDB retrieval;</li> <li>iterative analyst/reviewer loops;</li> <li>counterexample search;</li> <li>confidence and validity scoring;</li> <li>prompt quality gates;</li> <li>blind temporal backtesting;</li> <li>PDFreports;</li> </ul> <p>It runs locally after setup and does not require cloud API keys.</p> <p>I am looking for feedback on positioning and evaluation:</p> <ol> <li>Would you trust this more as an analyst workstation than as a "prediction" product?</li> <li>What would you require before using it in a company?</li> <li>Is Windows-first a mistake, or useful for nontechnical users?</li> </ol> <p>Disclosure: I built it and I am preparing a paid Gumroad release. Happy to share details about the architecture and the mistakes I ran into.</p> ai rag showdev sideprojects